Trader Talk

Is a vaccine the real risk to the market?  Stocks are within 1% to 2% of their historic highs because of the belief that: 1) stimulus of some form is coming, 2) the election will not devolve into chaos, and 3) an effective vaccine will be available in early 2021. Five vaccines — from Moderna,

Would you talk differently if you knew a machine was listening to you and grading you based on what you were saying, or based on whether you were using positive or negative words, or even if the sound of your voice was optimistic or pessimistic? Apparently, Wall Street executives are talking differently. They are trying to

A pedestrian wearing a protective mask exits from the Wall Street subway station in New York, on Monday, July 20, 2020. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images Wall Street is getting bulled up on earnings, and that is highlighting the divide it has with Main Street. Earnings season is two days old, and already

A view of NASDAQ in Times Square during the coronavirus pandemic on May 7, 2020 in New York City. Noam Galai | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images In the ETF space, success begets success. Just look at what Invesco is doing today. They’re launching a new product, the NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ).

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in lower Manhattan on October 5, 2020 in New York City. Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images Stock market bulls, rejoice.  Third quarter earnings season begins Tuesday with JPMorgan Chase.  The good news: in the second quarter, companies delivered surprisingly large earnings beats as analysts underestimated

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speak to reporters after their coronavirus relief negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S. August 7, 2020. Jonathan Ernst | Reuters The trading community is actively debating the

A computer-generated image from interiors contractor Portview shows how office space may be segregated as people go back to the workplace after the coronavirus lockdowns are eased. Portview What will the post-Covid workplace look like? Steelcase is one of the largest manufacturers of office furniture — desks, chairs, storage products and office pods — and

A trader working after the Nasdaq opening bell ceremony on April 18, 2019 in New York City. Kena Betancur | Getty Images Stock picking has a terrible track record, and it’s getting worse. That’s the thesis of Larry Swedroe and Andrew Berkin’s book, “The Incredible Shrinking Alpha,” just out in its second edition. Swedroe is

Snowflake IPO begins trading at the NYSE on Sept. 16th, 2020. Source: NYSE So you think Snowflake up over 100% on its first day is a big deal? Nah, there’s been plenty of companies that have had first day pops bigger than that this year.  They include biotech firm CureVac, up 249% on the first

The software business is on fire. This is going to be by far the biggest year for software IPOs in history. Four big software IPOs are pricing this week: Snowflake, Unity Software, Jfrog, and Sumo Logic. Palantir and Asana are coming at the end of September.   Snowflake priced its IPO at $120 per share, raising

Traders wearing masks work, on the first day of in person trading since the closure during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 26, 2020. Brendan McDermid | Reuters There’s a spate of new exchanges ready to launch that want

You knew this was coming. The market internals had been flashing warning signs for a couple weeks: very few new highs, very sloppy advance/decline line, low short interest, and a lot of talk about FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and TINA (There Is No Alternative). All signs of frothiness. So what is this? Is this

A stock trader wearing a mask walks near social distancing signs the day a new IPO is launched at the New York Stock Exchange as the city continues Phase 4 of re-opening following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on August 27, 2020 in New York City. The fourth phase allows outdoor arts

A bear statue stands outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, operated by Deutsche Boerse AG, in Frankfurt, Germany, on Friday, March 13, 2020. Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty Images Throw in the towel on a market pullback? It’s getting lonely being a market bear. Investors — even market bulls — who are trying to figure

It’s been a great August, up 6% for the S&P 500, the best August since 1986. But then again, it was a great July.  And a great June. May was pretty good, too, and April was downright eye-popping. The Summer Rally (S&P 500 Monthly Returns) April: up 12.7% May: up 4.5% June: up 1.8% July:

Protesters block a courthouse entrance in Los Angeles on Aug. 21, 2020. VALERIE MACON | AFP | Getty Images The rich really are getting richer.  We know this, but two Federal Reserve economists have recently examined the evidence and concluded the gap is getting even wider. Federal Reserve Board economists Isabel Cairo and Jae Sim

Traders wearing masks work, on the first day of in person trading since the closure during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 26, 2020. Brendan McDermid | Reuters It finally happened, but not without some drama. The S&P 500

Shake Shack, one of the many storefront businesses boarded in downtown Brooklyn over the fears of looting. Erik McGregor | Getty Images Just looking at the earnings for Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google, you might get the impression that everything is going swimmingly for second- and third-quarter earnings. But that’s not the case. “We continue to

Amazon, Facebook, and Apple are only the most recent examples of a notable trend: earnings much better than expected. The reopening story may be getting rocky, but one pleasant surprise has been earnings. They are far noisier than normal, but in general they have been better than expected. Much better. And that is one of

Jason Gorevic, CEO, Teladoc Scott Mlyn | CNBC Earnings reports are coming in fast and furiously, and with a large percentage of companies declining to provide guidance, reporters and analysts are combing through corporate press releases and earnings calls for signs of how business is doing.  Semiconductors continue to be the all-round winner Equipment maker

The stock market is holding up well because it believes three things are happening: 1) a vaccine is coming, 2) there will be almost infinite stimulus from the Federal Reserve, and 3) the second quarter was the worst quarter for corporate profits and those profits will slowly improve. But there’s a subtext to much of

A customer leaves a Sherwin-Williams Co. store Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images With one-third of the S&P 500 reporting, there’s a battle shaping up between two stories. One is somewhat bearish: The reopening is slowing, and the second half will not see the V-shaped recovery anticipated at the height of reopening euphoria in