Bull Market Rally Continues Ahead of CPI and Fed


  • Tech trade remains strong, sending the S&P 500 to a 13-month high
  • Ahead of the May inflation report, Fed swaps are pricing a 23.8% chance the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday
  • Dollar and Treasury yields edge higher

US stocks are rallying ahead of a massive macro week that contains a key reading, some major central bank rate decisions, and many important economic readings. The bull market rally looks like it doesn’t want to stop, which means Wall Street appears confident that the will not be delivering its 11th straight rate hike this week. ​The Fed will try to keep optionality for further tightening available later this year, and that should support their ‘higher for longer’ stance. ​

S&P-500 Daily Chart

A hot May inflation report could disrupt the Fed’s plan to deliver a ‘hawkish skip.’ ​Inflation should be coming down, given the trend with gasoline prices, a more seasonable rise in food prices, and the negative base effects. If the US economy is dealt a hot report, the Fed may have to debate delivering one more rate hike and possibly signal they might need to stand ready to do more.

The headline is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.1% on a monthly basis. The negative base effects should help the headline year-over-year reading fall from 4.9% to 4.1%. inflation from a month ago could soften from 0.4% to 0.3%, while the reading is expected to drop from 5.5% to 5.2%.

US Dollar

The rebounded as the weakened, as investors may have priced in too much tightening by the BOE. BOE’s Mann noted that inflation expectations are now on the downswing. The also softened as a risk-on mood on Wall Street dented demand for safe havens.

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